Trading strategy backtests on Indian indices

Textbook rules — moving-average crosses, Supertrend, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, breakouts and candle patterns — run on the same 4 indices over the same twenty years with the same costs, so they can be compared fairly against simply buying and holding the index.

Key facts

30 textbook trading strategies backtested on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, Sensex, Nifty IT from Dec 2005 to Nov 2026, after costs. On Nifty 50, the top 3 by CAGR were EMA 20/50 Crossover (8.6%), MACD Zero-Line Cross (7.3%), Ichimoku Cloud Breakout (6.7%), against 11.0% a year for buy-and-hold; 0 of 30 beat it.

As of 9 Nov 2026 · Hypothetical backtests by Jivani Markets; re-run weekly

Nifty 50

Buy and hold Nifty 50: CAGR 11.0%, max drawdown −59.9% (30 Dec 2005 to 9 Nov 2026). Sorted by CAGR.

Strategy	CAGR	Max drawdown	Win rate	Trades
EMA 20/50 Crossover	8.6%	−29.9%	54.0%	37
MACD Zero-Line Cross	7.3%	−39.7%	44.4%	72
Ichimoku Cloud Breakout	6.7%	−35.4%	45.3%	53
Supertrend (7, 3)	6.3%	−32.1%	46.3%	82
EMA 9/21 Crossover	6.1%	−30.2%	40.2%	102
Golden Cross	6.0%	−43.0%	53.9%	13
200-Day Moving Average Trend	5.2%	−33.9%	21.0%	81
Supertrend (10, 3)	5.0%	−34.6%	44.4%	81
Donchian 20/10 Breakout	3.8%	−32.7%	41.7%	96
Bollinger Band Breakout	3.1%	−32.3%	39.0%	82
12-Month Momentum	3.0%	−27.5%	36.5%	52
Inside Bar Breakout	2.3%	−30.6%	57.6%	144
Pullback to the 20 EMA	2.3%	−31.8%	32.6%	92
RSI 30/70	2.1%	−53.9%	75.0%	20
RSI 50 Momentum	2.0%	−36.0%	28.0%	264
MACD Signal-Line Crossover	1.7%	−39.0%	38.0%	200
52-Week High Breakout	1.3%	−25.1%	34.1%	41
Bollinger Squeeze Breakout	0.5%	−33.3%	36.2%	58
RSI Oversold in an Uptrend	0.4%	−18.1%	54.5%	11
Hammer Candle in an Uptrend	0.1%	−49.0%	47.9%	240
Stochastic Oversold	−0.3%	−52.4%	66.3%	101
ADX Trend	−0.4%	−22.6%	27.5%	40
MACD Crossover above the 200-DMA	−0.5%	−38.2%	33.3%	150
Bullish Engulfing at the 50-DMA	−0.8%	−14.8%	60.0%	15
Williams %R Oversold	−0.8%	−52.3%	70.7%	140
Parabolic SAR	−1.3%	−53.6%	40.2%	249
RSI(2) Pullback	−2.4%	−47.9%	57.4%	176
Bollinger Band Mean Reversion	−3.1%	−68.2%	70.2%	94
NR7 Breakout	−4.0%	−62.3%	46.8%	156
Heikin-Ashi Trend	−5.9%	−80.3%	33.6%	616

Bank Nifty

Buy and hold Bank Nifty: CAGR 13.1%, max drawdown −68.8% (30 Dec 2005 to 9 Nov 2026). Sorted by CAGR.

Strategy	CAGR	Max drawdown	Win rate	Trades
MACD Zero-Line Cross	12.2%	−38.9%	44.2%	77
200-Day Moving Average Trend	9.4%	−36.7%	27.3%	66
Ichimoku Cloud Breakout	9.3%	−48.4%	42.6%	54
EMA 9/21 Crossover	8.5%	−40.7%	38.9%	108
EMA 20/50 Crossover	8.3%	−49.5%	46.5%	43
Supertrend (7, 3)	7.3%	−33.9%	42.7%	82
Donchian 20/10 Breakout	7.2%	−31.0%	43.4%	83
Golden Cross	7.0%	−45.1%	60.0%	15
RSI 50 Momentum	6.6%	−40.1%	28.0%	243
Supertrend (10, 3)	4.4%	−48.9%	39.5%	86
12-Month Momentum	4.2%	−49.3%	27.8%	54
Bollinger Band Breakout	4.1%	−28.8%	41.1%	90
MACD Signal-Line Crossover	3.0%	−51.4%	36.5%	203
Parabolic SAR	3.0%	−63.5%	42.5%	235
RSI 30/70	2.7%	−66.2%	81.8%	22
Inside Bar Breakout	2.5%	−55.2%	51.4%	142
Stochastic Oversold	1.6%	−44.7%	66.7%	99
Bollinger Squeeze Breakout	0.9%	−27.4%	43.2%	37
Bollinger Band Mean Reversion	0.9%	−43.4%	69.0%	100
ADX Trend	0.9%	−40.7%	35.9%	39
52-Week High Breakout	0.6%	−36.7%	38.2%	34
Pullback to the 20 EMA	0.5%	−49.1%	27.3%	99
Hammer Candle in an Uptrend	0.0%	−36.8%	52.2%	226
NR7 Breakout	−0.3%	−40.3%	53.0%	117
Williams %R Oversold	−0.4%	−50.3%	59.0%	139
Bullish Engulfing at the 50-DMA	−0.4%	−21.2%	48.0%	25
RSI Oversold in an Uptrend(few trades)	−0.7%	−23.7%	37.5%	8
MACD Crossover above the 200-DMA	−0.9%	−44.6%	33.1%	142
RSI(2) Pullback	−2.0%	−55.8%	53.5%	172
Heikin-Ashi Trend	−4.6%	−81.5%	33.6%	649

Sensex

Buy and hold Sensex: CAGR 10.9%, max drawdown −60.9% (30 Dec 2005 to 9 Nov 2026). Sorted by CAGR.

Strategy	CAGR	Max drawdown	Win rate	Trades
EMA 20/50 Crossover	8.8%	−27.8%	51.2%	41
Ichimoku Cloud Breakout	6.6%	−37.1%	44.2%	52
MACD Zero-Line Cross	6.2%	−40.7%	45.3%	75
EMA 9/21 Crossover	6.0%	−30.6%	42.6%	101
200-Day Moving Average Trend	6.0%	−29.6%	23.7%	76
12-Month Momentum	4.3%	−25.8%	40.0%	40
Golden Cross	3.8%	−41.8%	58.3%	12
Donchian 20/10 Breakout	3.7%	−32.3%	40.4%	94
Supertrend (7, 3)	3.5%	−43.1%	42.7%	89
Bollinger Band Breakout	3.2%	−33.1%	38.5%	83
Supertrend (10, 3)	2.9%	−56.1%	42.7%	89
RSI 30/70	2.2%	−55.8%	70.0%	20
RSI 50 Momentum	2.1%	−45.3%	29.2%	267
Pullback to the 20 EMA	1.0%	−36.0%	30.2%	96
RSI Oversold in an Uptrend	0.8%	−17.7%	54.5%	11
Inside Bar Breakout	0.8%	−36.0%	50.4%	143
Hammer Candle in an Uptrend	0.5%	−47.7%	49.4%	237
52-Week High Breakout	0.5%	−29.5%	38.1%	42
MACD Signal-Line Crossover	0.5%	−43.9%	37.0%	203
Bollinger Squeeze Breakout	0.2%	−29.8%	31.0%	58
Stochastic Oversold	−0.8%	−55.7%	67.0%	106
Bullish Engulfing at the 50-DMA	−0.8%	−17.2%	33.3%	15
Parabolic SAR	−0.8%	−53.5%	38.8%	250
ADX Trend	−1.2%	−30.9%	17.5%	40
MACD Crossover above the 200-DMA	−1.2%	−49.8%	32.3%	155
Williams %R Oversold	−1.5%	−57.4%	65.2%	132
RSI(2) Pullback	−2.2%	−44.0%	56.1%	173
NR7 Breakout	−3.0%	−57.0%	48.7%	154
Bollinger Band Mean Reversion	−3.5%	−64.6%	65.5%	87
Heikin-Ashi Trend	−6.7%	−80.8%	35.7%	633

Nifty IT

Buy and hold Nifty IT: CAGR 10.7%, max drawdown −65.7% (30 Dec 2005 to 9 Nov 2026). Sorted by CAGR.

Strategy	CAGR	Max drawdown	Win rate	Trades
EMA 9/21 Crossover	10.8%	−37.0%	36.2%	94
MACD Zero-Line Cross	10.6%	−34.0%	37.5%	72
EMA 20/50 Crossover	9.8%	−37.6%	29.3%	41
12-Month Momentum	8.4%	−33.0%	29.4%	34
Supertrend (10, 3)	8.4%	−34.8%	44.6%	74
Supertrend (7, 3)	8.2%	−36.8%	46.0%	74
Ichimoku Cloud Breakout	8.2%	−41.5%	28.3%	53
200-Day Moving Average Trend	6.5%	−44.9%	13.9%	86
Golden Cross	6.2%	−41.0%	43.8%	16
52-Week High Breakout	6.2%	−17.5%	58.3%	24
Pullback to the 20 EMA	6.0%	−39.9%	30.7%	75
Donchian 20/10 Breakout	5.3%	−40.1%	42.5%	87
Hammer Candle in an Uptrend	4.3%	−32.7%	58.6%	191
MACD Crossover above the 200-DMA	3.9%	−22.7%	41.7%	115
Bollinger Band Breakout	3.8%	−43.8%	40.8%	98
RSI 50 Momentum	3.7%	−51.4%	24.5%	257
MACD Signal-Line Crossover	3.2%	−51.9%	39.3%	191
Bollinger Squeeze Breakout	3.0%	−31.6%	49.0%	49
RSI 30/70	2.5%	−58.7%	77.3%	22
Parabolic SAR	2.2%	−60.0%	41.4%	220
RSI Oversold in an Uptrend	0.7%	−20.0%	40.0%	10
RSI(2) Pullback	−0.5%	−36.4%	57.3%	131
NR7 Breakout	−0.6%	−28.6%	48.7%	78
ADX Trend	−0.6%	−33.5%	24.3%	37
Bullish Engulfing at the 50-DMA	−1.1%	−27.5%	35.0%	20
Williams %R Oversold	−1.3%	−53.0%	66.2%	139
Bollinger Band Mean Reversion	−2.0%	−52.4%	65.6%	93
Inside Bar Breakout	−2.2%	−51.8%	48.3%	151
Stochastic Oversold	−3.5%	−64.9%	63.5%	96
Heikin-Ashi Trend	−10.5%	−92.1%	32.4%	669

Strategies by type

Trend following

Golden Cross: Buy when the 50-day simple moving average crosses above the 200-day; sell on the death cross back below.
EMA 9/21 Crossover: Buy when the 9-day EMA crosses above the 21-day EMA; sell when it crosses back below.
EMA 20/50 Crossover: Buy when the 20-day EMA crosses above the 50-day EMA; sell when it crosses back below.
200-Day Moving Average Trend: Hold while the close is above its 200-day simple moving average; step aside when it closes below.
Supertrend (10, 3): Buy when the close crosses above the Supertrend line (10-period ATR, multiplier 3); sell when it crosses back below.
Supertrend (7, 3): Buy when the close crosses above Supertrend with a 7-period ATR and multiplier 3; sell when it crosses back below.
Parabolic SAR: Buy when the close crosses above the Parabolic SAR; sell when it crosses back below.
Ichimoku Cloud Breakout: Buy when the close crosses above the Ichimoku cloud; sell when it closes below the bottom of the cloud.
ADX Trend: Buy when ADX is above 25 and +DI crosses above −DI; sell when +DI crosses back below −DI.
Pullback to the 20 EMA: In an uptrend (20 EMA above 50 EMA), buy a day that dips below the 20 EMA and closes back above it; sell when the close falls below the 50 EMA.
Heikin-Ashi Trend: Buy when the Heikin-Ashi candle turns bullish; sell when it turns bearish.

Momentum

MACD Signal-Line Crossover: Buy when the MACD line (12, 26) crosses above its 9-day signal line; sell when it crosses back below.
MACD Crossover above the 200-DMA: Take the MACD signal-line cross only while price is above its 200-day average; sell on the cross back.
MACD Zero-Line Cross: Buy when the MACD line crosses above zero; sell when it crosses back below zero.
RSI 50 Momentum: Buy when 14-day RSI crosses above 50; sell when it crosses back below 50.
12-Month Momentum: Hold while the 12-month price change is positive; step aside when it turns negative.

Mean reversion

RSI 30/70: Buy when 14-day RSI climbs back above 30 from oversold; sell when it reaches 70.
RSI Oversold in an Uptrend: Buy an RSI dip below 30 only while price is above its 200-day average; sell at RSI 60 or after 20 sessions.
RSI(2) Pullback: Buy when 2-day RSI drops below 10 while price is above its 200-day average; sell when the close rises above the 5-day average.
Stochastic Oversold: Buy when the stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) climbs back above 20; sell when it reaches 80.
Williams %R Oversold: Buy when Williams %R (14) climbs back above −80; sell when it reaches −20.
Bollinger Band Mean Reversion: Buy a close below the lower Bollinger Band (20, 2); sell at the middle band or after 15 sessions.

Breakout

Bollinger Band Breakout: Buy when the close breaks above the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2); sell when it closes below the middle band.
Donchian 20/10 Breakout: Buy a close above the highest high of the last 20 sessions; sell on a close below the lowest low of the last 10.
52-Week High Breakout: Buy a close above the highest high of the past 252 sessions; sell when the close falls below the 50-day average.
Bollinger Squeeze Breakout: After the Bollinger Bands narrow to under 5% of price, buy a close above the upper band; sell below the middle band.
NR7 Breakout: After the narrowest-range day of the last seven, buy a close above that day's high in an uptrend; hold for 10 sessions.
Inside Bar Breakout: Buy a close above the previous day's high just after an inside bar; hold for 10 sessions.

Candlestick pattern

Bullish Engulfing at the 50-DMA: Buy a bullish engulfing candle that touches the 50-day average; hold for 10 sessions.
Hammer Candle in an Uptrend: Buy a hammer candle while price is above its 200-day average; hold for 10 sessions.

Frequently asked questions

Which trading strategy had the highest return on Nifty 50?

Of the 30 rules with at least 10 trades, the top by CAGR from 30 Dec 2005 to 9 Nov 2026 was EMA 20/50 Crossover at 8.6% a year after costs (worst fall 29.9%), against 11.0% a year and a worst fall of 59.9% for buying and holding the index. None of the 30 beat buy-and-hold on annual return. Hypothetical results; past performance is not indicative of future results.

Which trading strategy had the highest return on Bank Nifty?

Of the 29 rules with at least 10 trades, the top by CAGR from 30 Dec 2005 to 9 Nov 2026 was MACD Zero-Line Cross at 12.2% a year after costs (worst fall 38.9%), against 13.1% a year and a worst fall of 68.8% for buying and holding the index. None of the 29 beat buy-and-hold on annual return. Hypothetical results; past performance is not indicative of future results.

Do RSI strategies work on Nifty 50?

Tested on the Nifty 50 index over the same 21 years: RSI 30/70 returned 2.1% a year with a 75.0% win rate over 20 trades; RSI 50 Momentum returned 2.0% a year with a 28.0% win rate over 264 trades; RSI Oversold in an Uptrend returned 0.4% a year with a 54.5% win rate over 11 trades; RSI(2) Pullback returned −2.4% a year with a 57.4% win rate over 176 trades; buy-and-hold returned 11.0%. A high win rate did not mean a high return. Hypothetical results; past performance is not indicative of future results.

How were these backtests run?

With the same engine as the Jivani Markets backtester: daily candles, long only, signals on the close and orders at the next session's open, ₹10 lakh of capital with all of it in one position at a time, retail delivery charges and size-based slippage, and price-index data without dividends. Each index is traded at its own level as a stand-in for an index fund or ETF.

How often are these results updated?

Every week, through the last closed session. Each page shows the dates it covers.

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