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Buy when the 50-day simple moving average crosses above the 200-day; sell on the death cross back below.
Backtest of Golden Cross on Sensex from Dec 2005 to Nov 2026: CAGR 3.8%, max drawdown 41.8%, win rate 58.3% over 12 trades, vs buy-and-hold 10.9%.
As of · Hypothetical backtest by Jivani Markets on Sensex daily data; re-run weekly
| Measure | Golden Cross | Buy and hold Sensex |
|---|---|---|
| CAGR (annual return) | 3.8% | 10.9% |
| Total return | 118% | 764% |
| Max drawdown | −41.8% | −60.9% |
| ₹10 lakh became | ₹21.8 lakh | ₹86.4 lakh |
| Win rate | 58.3% | — |
| Trades (closed) | 12 | — |
| Winning / losing trades | 7 / 5 | — |
| Profit factor | 2.32 | — |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.38 | — |
| Volatility (annual) | 11.8% | — |
| Time in the market | 61% | 100% |
| Average holding | 263 sessions | — |
| Charges and slippage paid | ₹1,01,349 | — |
# Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) on Sensex
universe("SENSEX", asset="index")
settings(
timeframe="1d",
entry_timing="next_open",
cost_model="retail",
slippage_model="tiered",
start="2006-01-01",
benchmark="SENSEX",
allow_short=False,
participation_ignore_zero_volume=True,
)
exit_when(crosses_below(sma(50), sma(200)))
buy(crosses_above(sma(50), sma(200)), size=percent_of_equity(100))
| Year | Strategy | Buy and hold |
|---|---|---|
| 2026* | −10.1% | −4.8% |
| 2025 | +0.9% | +9.1% |
| 2024 | +8.0% | +8.2% |
| 2023 | +13.7% | +18.7% |
| 2022 | +2.9% | +4.4% |
| 2021 | +21.5% | +22.0% |
| 2020 | −17.8% | +15.8% |
| 2019 | +1.0% | +14.4% |
| 2018 | +3.6% | +5.9% |
| 2017 | +16.9% | +27.9% |
| 2016 | −2.9% | +1.9% |
| 2015 | −2.7% | −5.0% |
| 2014 | +29.4% | +29.9% |
| 2013 | −3.4% | +9.0% |
| 2012 | +3.0% | +25.7% |
| 2011 | −11.0% | −24.6% |
| 2010 | +17.1% | +17.4% |
| 2009 | +22.6% | +81.0% |
| 2008 | 0.0% | −52.5% |
| 2007 | 0.0% | +47.1% |
| 2006 | 0.0% | +46.8% |
| Bought | At | Sold | At | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jun 2025 | 81,317.87 | 12 Mar 2026 | 76,255.09 | −6.4% |
| 30 May 2023 | 62,934.11 | 28 Jan 2025 | 75,545.51 | +19.8% |
| 12 Sept 2022 | 60,002.16 | 28 Apr 2023 | 60,630.53 | +0.8% |
| 25 Aug 2020 | 39,006.88 | 7 Apr 2022 | 59,313.51 | +51.8% |
| 31 Oct 2019 | 40,272.31 | 23 Mar 2020 | 27,567.39 | −31.7% |
| 23 Jan 2019 | 36,548.86 | 20 Sept 2019 | 36,160.6 | −1.3% |
| 23 Feb 2017 | 28,971.06 | 27 Nov 2018 | 35,341.68 | +21.7% |
| 6 Jun 2016 | 26,938.19 | 28 Dec 2016 | 26,203.82 | −3.0% |
| 23 Oct 2013 | 20,906.62 | 8 Jun 2015 | 26,774.09 | +27.8% |
| 2 Aug 2012 | 17,271.55 | 19 Aug 2013 | 18,559.5 | +7.2% |
From 30 Dec 2005 to 9 Nov 2026, these Golden Cross rules on the Sensex index returned a CAGR of 3.8% after costs, less than the 10.9% a year from buying and holding the index, with a worst fall of 41.8% against 60.9% for buy-and-hold. It made 12 trades and was invested 61% of the time. This is a hypothetical test on past data, not a recommendation, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
58.3%: 7 of 12 closed trades made money after charges and slippage. On a ₹10 lakh account the average winning trade made ₹2,95,418 and the average losing trade lost ₹1,78,108; the profit factor (gross profit ÷ gross loss) was 2.32. A high win rate with small wins can still lose money, so read it with the CAGR and drawdown.
Buy: The 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a golden cross). Sell: The 50-day SMA crosses back below the 200-day SMA (a death cross). One position at a time with all of the capital; out of the market (in cash, earning nothing) between trades. Daily candles, long only, orders filled at the next session's open.
Buying and holding the Sensex index over the same dates returned 10.9% a year with a worst fall of 60.9%; the strategy returned 3.8% a year with a worst fall of 41.8%. A strategy that is out of the market part of the time usually gives up some return in rising years in exchange for missing part of the falls; the year-by-year table on this page shows where each one gained or lost.
Retail delivery charges (STT, exchange and SEBI fees, stamp duty and GST) and size-based slippage on every buy and sell; signals are read on the daily close and filled at the next session's open; price return only, so dividends are left out of both the strategy and buy-and-hold. An index cannot be bought directly; a fund or ETF that tracks it adds its own expense ratio and tracking error, and pays dividends this price-index test leaves out.
Yes. The "Run it yourself" link opens these exact rules in the Jivani Markets backtest builder, where you can change the indicator settings, add a stop-loss, pick other stocks or indices and re-run it on the latest data.